Sunday, October 1, 2023

October 2023-24 Weather ... it's El Niños turn

It's not like El Niño or La Niña are everyday weather patterns that roll off the old brain cells like it's going to be a dry fall and winter season or bring out the raincoats. 

If you're like me, you have to be reminded or have the two explained each time they are mentioned. I'll summarize the El Niño and La Niña definitions below, I need the primer too. 

Keep in mind that both patterns generally last nine to twelve months or possibly years. They occur every two to seven years, but not on a regular basis. Ah, such is life being part of nature's big weather and climate picture.

El Niño, which is what we are experiencing now in the fall of 2023 means weakening trade winds over the Pacific Ocean lead to warm ocean waters that increase the potential for rainfall in areas like Southern California through Texas and the southeastern U.S. 

The Polar jet stream in a typical El Niño winter sets up further north which makes for warmer then normal temperatures in the northwestern part of the U.S.

In La Niña seasons, trade winds push stronger than average warm water toward Asia, which brings cold waters to the Pacific and a more northward jet stream. This results in drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. Winter temperatures end up being warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North. La Niña also results in a more severe hurricane season. 

We are officially out of a La Niña state of mind and weather. 

Below is typical weather prediction map based on the current El Niño into next year.

We'll see.


Photo from NOAA

 

Additional Resources - 

What a Strong El Niño Means for our Winter Weather and our Gardens from The Garden Professors Blog

What are El Niño and La Niña from NOAA

 


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